Thursday, May 8, 2014
Saturday, April 26, 2014
Games through 4/25/2014
Below are graphs showing the probability of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. The graphs show how a team's chances change over time. One thing that's interesting is that Miami has the best chance of reaching the quarterfinals, semifinals and finals, but not the championship. The teams in the west are rated so much better that whoever comes out of the west will probably be a favorite over Miami.
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Games Through 4/19/2014
These numbers represent the probability of each team making it to each round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs. For example, in the numbers below, the Indiana Pacers had a 83.21% chance of making it to the 2nd round, but after they lost game 1 to the Hawks, their chances dropped to 62.11%. I'm showing the probabilities of each team making it to each round of the Playoffs down below.
| Initial | Through 4/19/2014 | |
| Team | Quarter Finals | Quarter Finals |
| San Antonio Spurs | 85.06% | 85.88% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 68.76% | 44.89% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 81.82% | 87.73% |
| Golden State Warriors | 31.24% | 55.11% |
| Houston Rockets | 58.54% | 59.83% |
| Miami Heat | 85.96% | 86.69% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 41.46% | 40.17% |
| Indiana Pacers | 83.21% | 62.11% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 14.94% | 14.12% |
| Toronto Raptors | 82.10% | 60.66% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 18.18% | 12.27% |
| Chicago Bulls | 62.59% | 62.59% |
| Washington Wizards | 37.41% | 37.41% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 16.79% | 37.89% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 14.04% | 13.31% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 17.90% | 39.34% |
| Team | Semi Finals | Semi Finals |
| San Antonio Spurs | 66.01% | 65.98% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 36.66% | 23.50% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 47.34% | 53.02% |
| Golden State Warriors | 12.87% | 21.10% |
| Houston Rockets | 18.08% | 18.36% |
| Miami Heat | 61.55% | 65.37% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 11.14% | 10.85% |
| Indiana Pacers | 61.83% | 46.68% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 4.77% | 4.81% |
| Toronto Raptors | 31.70% | 23.64% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 3.13% | 2.38% |
| Chicago Bulls | 21.77% | 27.49% |
| Washington Wizards | 11.18% | 13.99% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 5.22% | 11.84% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 3.49% | 4.14% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 3.26% | 6.85% |
| Team | Finals | Finals |
| San Antonio Spurs | 43.63% | 44.28% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 18.37% | 11.58% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 21.63% | 24.26% |
| Golden State Warriors | 4.59% | 7.28% |
| Houston Rockets | 6.27% | 7.16% |
| Miami Heat | 36.37% | 41.84% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 3.71% | 3.98% |
| Indiana Pacers | 36.31% | 27.76% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 1.16% | 1.04% |
| Toronto Raptors | 15.35% | 12.70% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 0.64% | 0.42% |
| Chicago Bulls | 6.98% | 9.07% |
| Washington Wizards | 2.96% | 3.94% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 0.85% | 2.31% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 0.66% | 1.00% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.52% | 1.38% |
| Team | Champion | Champion |
| San Antonio Spurs | 35.67% | 36.47% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 14.03% | 9.15% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 16.25% | 18.90% |
| Golden State Warriors | 2.64% | 4.11% |
| Houston Rockets | 3.55% | 4.27% |
| Miami Heat | 10.98% | 12.27% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 2.03% | 2.19% |
| Indiana Pacers | 9.84% | 7.65% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.59% | 0.63% |
| Toronto Raptors | 2.95% | 2.43% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 0.18% | 0.17% |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.83% | 1.09% |
| Washington Wizards | 0.34% | 0.46% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 0.03% | 0.08% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 0.05% | 0.06% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.04% | 0.07% |
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